Analisis Kinerja Keuangan Sektor Manufacture dengan Multiple Discriminant Analysis Bankcruptcy Model di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2014 – 2017

Yunan Surono, Sindy Dwiroro Pangestu

Abstract


This research aims to prove the financial performance of Manufacture sector with Multiple Discriminant Analysis Bankruptcy Model when measured using the Altman's Z-score first model, Altman's Z-score revision and Altman's Z-score modifications, Springate model and Zmiejewski model as well as to get the stocks that have the best performance based on the model. In this research the population used is the stock sector manufacturing group on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the year 2014 – 2017 as many as 166 issuers manufacture. This research sample is the manufacture sector company, which provides complete data, and has a total asset of positive value and fluctuates as many as 22 companies. This form of research is an explolanatoris research (explanatory Research). The results showed, that based on the first Altman's Z-score model, in 2014 the company's performance in a healthy or not bankrupt category was 31.82%, while the company had a gray performance of 22.73%, as for The company's performance with the category broke by 45.45%. In 2015 the company's performance with a healthy category of 27, 27, 82%, a company that had a gray performance of 27.27%, the company's performance of the category went bankrupt by 45.45%. In 2016 the company's performance with a healthy category of 22, 73, 82%, the company had a gray performance of 36.36%, as for the performance of the company with the category bankrupt by 36.36%. In 2017 the company's performance with a category of 40.91%, the company has a gray performance of 22.73%, as for the performance of the company with the category bankrupt by 36.36%. Based on the model Altman Z-Score revision can be concluded that in 2014 the company's performance with a healthy category of 31.82%, a company that has a gray performance of 54.55%, as for the performance of the company with the category bankrupt 13.64%. Year 2015 the performance of the company with a healthy category of 27.27%, the company has a gray performance of 54.55%, the company with the category went bankrupt by 18.18%. Year 2016 the company's performance with a healthy category of 45.45%, while the company has a gray performance of 36.36%, the company with the category went bankrupt by 18.18%. Year 2017 the performance of the company with a healthy category of 50.00%, the company that has a gray performance of 31.82%, the performance of the company with the category bankrupt by 18.18%. Based on the model of Altman Z-score modification can be concluded, namely in 2014 the performance of the company with a healthy category of 72.73%, the company that has a gray performance of 22.73%, as for the performance of the company with the category bankrupt of 4.55%. In 2015 the company's performance with a healthy category of 72.73%, while the company had a gray performance of 18.18%, as for the company's performance in the category went bankrupt by 9.09%. In 2016 the company's performance with a healthy category of 77.27%, the company had a gray performance of 13.64%, the company's performance in the category went bankrupt by 18.18%. In 2017 the company's performance with a healthy category of 81.82%, while the company had a gray performance of 13.64%, as for the company's performance in the category went bankrupt by 4.55%. Based on Springate model can be concluded, namely in 2014 the performance of the company with a healthy category of 59.09%, while companies that have a gray performance is not there, as for the performance of the company with the category bankrupt by 40.91%. In 2015 the company's performance with a healthy category of 50.00%, while companies that had a gray performance did not exist, the performance of the company with the category went bankrupt by 50.00%. In 2016 the company's performance with a healthy category of 59.09%, while companies that have a gray performance does not exist, as for the performance of the company with the category bankrupt by 40.91%. In 2017 the company's performance with a healthy category of 63.64%, while companies that have a gray performance does not exist, as for the performance of the company with the category bankrupt by 36.36%. Based on Zmiejewski model can be concluded, in 2014 to 2017 the performance of companies with a healthy or not bankrupt category is 100%, while companies that have a gray performance does not exist, as for the performance of the company with Bankruptcy category does not exist. Stocks that have the best performance based on each multiple discriminant analysis bankruptcy models respectively, namely INTP, CEKA, MERK, GGRM, LMSH, CPIN, MLBI, IKBI, TRIS UNIC and INDF, who have never experienced bankruptcy or in financial distress.


Keywords


Multiple Discriminant Analysis Bankruptcy Model, Altman Z-Score Model, Altman Model Z-Score Revision, Model Altman Z-Score Modification, Springate Model, Zmiejewski Model.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Altman, E.I. 1968, Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, 23: 589-609.

Ayu Suci Ramdhani dan Niki Lukviarman, 2009, Perbandingan Analisis Model Kebangkrutan Menggunakan Model Altman Pertama, Altman Revisi Dan Altman Modifikasi Dengan Ukuran Dan Umur Perusahaan Sebagai Variabel Penjelas (Studi Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Jurnal

Bambang Sudiyatno dan Elen Puspitasari 2010, Tobin,s q dan Altman’s Z-score sebagai indikator pengukuran kinerja perusahaan. Jurnal

Brigham E, Houston J, 2001, Manajemen Keuangan, Buku 1, Edisi Kedelapan, Penerbit Airlangga,Jakarta.

Darmawan, Deni. 2014. Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif. Bandung : PT. Remaja Rosdakarya

Darsono dan Ashari, 2005, Pedoman Praktis Memahami Laporan Keuangan, Yogyakarta: ANDI

Doumpos, M. & Zouponidis, C. 1999,. A Multicriteria Discrimination Method for Prediction of Financial Distress: The Case of Greece. Multinational Finance Journal, 3(2): 71-101.

Fatmawati, Mila 2012, Penggunaan the Zmijewski model, the Altman model dan Springate model sebagai prediktor delisting. Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan, Vol 16. No.1., Januari 2012. Hal 56-65.

Hanafi M. Mamduh & Halim Abdul. 2016, Analisis Laporan Keuangan, Edisi ke-5, Yogyakarta:UPP STIM YKPN

Harahap, Sofyan Syafri, 2010, Analisis Kritis Atas Laporan Keuangan, Jakarta: PT. Raja Grafindo Persada,

Husnan S, 1994, Dasar-dasar Teori Portofolio dan Analisi Sekuritas, Edisi Kedua, Penerbit UPP-AMP YKPN, Yogyakarta.

Kokyung dan Siti Khairani 2013, Analisis Penggunaan Altman Z-score dan Springate untuk Mengetahui Potensi Kebangkrutan pada PT.Bakrie Telecom, STIE, MDP.

Lau, A.H. 1987, A Five State Financial Distress Prediction Model. Journal of Accounting Research, 25: 127138.

Lazuardy, M. Hikam 2016, Analisis Pengukuran Kinerja Keuangan Dengan Model Altman Z-Score dan Tobin’s Q. Studi Kasus Pada Perusahaan Sektor Makanan Dan Minuman Di BEI Periode 2010-2014. Jurnal

Martin John B, Keown Arthur J, 1995, Dasar-dasar Manajemen Keuangan, Edisi Kelima, Jilid 1, Penerbit PT. Raja Grafindo Persad, Jakarta.

Peter dan Yoseph, 2009, Analisis Kebangkrutan metode Z-Score Altman, Springate dan Zmijewski pada PT. Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk Periode 2005 – 2009, Universitas Kristen Maranatha

Platt, H.D. & Platt, M.B. 1990, Development of a Class of Stable Predictive Variables: The Case of Bankruptcy Predictions. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 17: 31-51

Platt, H., dan M. B. Platt. 2002, Predicting Financial Distress, Journal of Financial Service Professionals.

Pramudtya Yudha Andhika. 2014, Analisis Penerapann Mekanisme Corporate Governance Terhadap Kemungkinan Perusahaan Mengalami Financial Distress, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang

Prihadi, Toto. 2011. Analisis Laporan Keuangan Teori dan Aplikasi Jakarta: PPM

Sartono, Agus. 2001, Manajemen Keuangan (Teori dan Aplikasi), Edisi Keempat. Yogyakarta:BPFE

Sharpe, W.F, dkk, 1999, Investasi, alih bahasa Henri N dan Agustian, Prendhalindo, Jakarta.

Sjahrial, Dermawan. 2014, Manajemen Keuangan Lanjutan, Edisi revisi Jakarta:Mitra Wacana Media

Suad,Husan &,Enny Pudjiastuti. 2012, Dasar-dasar Manajemen Keuangan. Yogyakarta: UPP STIM YKPN

Sujawerni,Wiratna.V. 2015, SPPS Untuk Penelitian, Yogyakarta: Pustaka Baru Press

Tandelilin,E., 2001, Analisis Investsi dan Manajemen Portofolio, Edisi Pertama, Penerbit BPFE, Yogyakarta.

Tandelilin,E., & I Wayan Nuka Lantara, 2001, Stabilitas dan Prediktabilitas Beta Saham: Studi Empiris di Bursa Efek Jakarta, Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia.

Zmijewski, M.E. 1984, Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models. Journal of Accounting Research, 22: 59-82.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.33087/jmas.v4i2.111

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


J-MAS (Jurnal Manajemen dan Sains) Published by Master of Management Program, Faculty of Economics, Batanghari University
Adress: Fakultas Ekonomi, Jl.Slamet Ryadi, Broni-Jambi, Kec.Telanaipura, Kodepos: 36122, email: jmas.unbari@gmail.com


Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.